Published: December 12, 2008
The regular season is over, and the BCS bowls are still weeks away. But in the interim, the nation’s attention will be focused on one of the closest Heisman Trophy races in recent memory.
The finalists were announced Wednesday, and the competition has boiled down to three quarterbacks — OU’s Sam Bradford, Texas’ Colt McCoy and Florida’s Tim Tebow.
All three are in the nation’s top five in passing efficiency and lead top-five scoring offenses with identical records.
The Daily now breaks down the full body of work of each of the candidates, with reasons why each might win and why each might not.
ESPN will announce the official winner Saturday at 7 p.m.
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Stats: 302-of-442 (68.3 percent), 4,464 passing yards, 53 total touchdowns, 186.29 passing efficiency
Why he’ll win: Bradford has orchestrated a historic run recently, leading the Sooners to five consecutive games of 60+ points. No other team has ever done that.
The Sooners also set an NCAA record with 702 points this season, and the offense has been discussed as one of the best ever.
Much of the team’s success comes from Bradford’s poise and leadership — particularly impressive for a sophomore — in running the no-huddle offense, which was not installed until this season. All season, defenses have been caught off guard by the speed with which OU can strike, and that ability comes from Bradford’s accuracy.
He has shown the consistent ability to hit receivers in stride on any throw and make defenses pay for any mistakes. His 186.29 passing efficiency is first in the nation.
It also helps that he has played his most recent games — against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Missouri — in prime time on a national stage. OU dismantled those three teams, all of which were ranked.
And one play may have leapfrogged him into the Heisman driver’s seat: his flip over two defenders while trying to get into the endzone against Oklahoma State. He was previously viewed as a system quarterback with little athletic ability, but that one play showed his athleticism and determination better than any other this season.
Every Heisman winner has a signature moment that defines his season. That was Bradford’s.
Why he won’t win: As part of such a dangerous offense, there is a spreading belief that Bradford has only achieved this kind of success because of the weapons he has around him.
His corps of receivers — which includes tight end Jermaine Gresham — and tandem of running backs mark one of the most talented groups in the nation. They are all so good that they routinely beat defenses and get wide open, providing easy passing lanes for Bradford.
Bradford also sits behind perhaps the best offensive line in the nation. He tends to have ample time to throw, providing even more opportunity for his skilled receivers to get open.
While plenty of voters will be impressed by the mountain of points the Sooners have put up lately, others might think they have been running up the score for style points and punish Bradford accordingly.
The Sooners’ woes in recent bowl games won’t help either. They have consistently had dangerous offenses that have been either limited or outgunned by teams with more than a couple weeks to prepare.
Colt McCoy, Texas
Stats: 291-of-375 (77.6 percent), 3,445 passing yards, 576 rushing yards, 42 total touchdowns, 179.2 passing efficiency
Why he’ll win: There has been a nation-wide backlash after OU overtook Texas in the BCS and went to the Big 12 Championship. Media outlets from coast to coast have complained about the fact that Texas defeated the Sooners on a neutral field, and plenty of voters who feel that Texas got shafted will vote for McCoy as a consolation prize.
Regardless of political reasons, McCoy has likely been the most crucial player to his team all season. He is surrounded by the least talent of the three finalists, and leads the team in passing and rushing.
He has shown a rapid increase in maturity and poise from past seasons, and his 77.6 completion percentage is a Division I record. He has also shown the ability to avoid the mistakes that plagued him last season, throwing only seven interceptions after throwing 18 last year.
He may also gain some points because of process of elimination: Some voters won’t want to give the award to a sophomore (Bradford) for the second season in a row, while others won’t consider Tebow dominant enough to make history as only the second player to be given the award twice.
Why he won’t win: Many voters carry a “What have you done for me lately” attitude, which will hurt McCoy. He has wallowed in relative obscurity for the past few weeks, playing mediocre teams while OU has played some of the nation’s best.
Much in the same way that Bradford was helped by one moment, McCoy will be hurt by one. The most lasting memory of Texas’ season was Michael Crabtree grabbing a last-second touchdown pass that ultimately doomed Texas’ national title hopes. When the one thing that sticks in people’s minds is a loss, it’s never a good thing.
McCoy’s opponents also haven’t been as strong as Bradford’s or Tebow’s, particularly outside of the conference. He played four teams before beginning Big 12 play, and none of them have been ranked at any point this season.
Also, while some may vote for McCoy as a consolation prize, others will refuse to vote for a player who could not win his own conference.
Tim Tebow, Florida
Stats: 174-of-268 (64.9 percent), 2,515 passing yards, 564 rushing yards, 40 total touchdowns, 176.74 passing efficiency
Why he’ll win: After a disappointing loss to Mississippi in September, Tebow promised that he would put the team on his back and push them to victory. He said no player would play as hard as he would for the rest of the season. He was right.
That was Tebow’s most defining moment, and is perhaps the most powerful of all three candidates. It showed courage, determination, leadership and a will to win.
Despite the success of the Big 12 this season, plenty of voters will still consider the SEC the nation’s strongest conference, and Tebow’s team won it. Against superior defenses, he has thrown only two interceptions all season.
People have raved about Tebow’s toughness because of his bruising running style and willingness to take on tacklers on a regular basis. He also has shown the willingness to sacrifice personal statistics for the good of the team, allowing other players like Percy Harvin to pick some of the slack.
Other than OU, Florida has been the hottest team in the nation for the past two months. Since the loss to Mississippi on Sep. 27, the Gators’ closest game was a 28-point victory over Vanderbilt.
On the whole, he has played better defenses than both Bradford and McCoy, which will help voters overlook his relatively low statistics.
Why he won’t win: Tebow came into this season surrounded by impossible expectations after racking up more than 4,000 yards and 55 touchdowns last season as a sophomore. He hasn’t come close to those numbers this season.
His bruising style was a nuance last year, a quality rarely seen in a quarterback. But this year, people have grown used to it and don’t consider it extraordinary.
He will likely be hurt by history too. He won the Heisman last year, and only one other player has ever won the award twice. Giving a player such elite status would require voters to consider him one of the best players in college football history, which he likely isn’t.
Regardless of the run his team has been on for the past two months, he also had the worst loss of the three finalists. McCoy and Bradford each lost to top-10 teams either on the road or on a neutral field, while Tebow lost to an unranked team at home.
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