Big 12 North
1. Missouri
Missouri has only three speed bumps on its schedule this year, starting with out-of-conference No. 20 Illinois this Saturday, Texas in mid-October and Kansas as the final game of the regular season. These hurdles are spread out in Missouri’s favor. The team gets some great big-game experience right off the bat with Illinois, and evenly spaced big games throughout the season. With a weak non-conference schedule and a weak Big 12 North, the Tigers should coast to the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City with one loss at most.
2. Kansas
Kansas will finish second in the Big 12 North after a grueling end to October and November. The Jayhawks will
play No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 12 Texas Tech, No. 11 Texas and No. 6 Missouri in six weeks to close out the season. Kansas will be handed multiple losses in this stretch, and won’t be in contention for the Big 12 North title. Don’t expect the Jayhawks to match the Cinderella season they had last year, but if they can steal a game or two in that brutal stretch, the rest of their schedule should help them qualify for a quality bowl.
3. Nebraska
The first three games of the season for Big Red come against easy competition in the form of non-conference Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State.
Things get a lot tougher from there, with a three-game stretch consisting of non-conference No. 17 Virgina Tech, No. 6 Missouri and No. 12 Texas Tech. Nebraska will falter later in the season as well with tough games against OU and No. 14 Kansas. There is a huge drop in talent after the top two spots in the North, so the Cornhuskers can finish third if they win essential games against the rest of the division.
4. Colorado
The Buffaloes will be tired before even getting into Big 12 play, and that will ultimately doom them to fourth place. Starting in September with No. 8 West Virginia and Florida State, Colorado immediately moves on to face No. 11 Texas and No. 14 Kansas. Kansas State offers one week of reprieve for Colorado before being launched into No. 6 Missouri and on the road against Texas A&M and the “Twelfth Man.”
5. Kansas State
An easy non-conference schedule will not tire Kansas State early on, but the Wildcats play pivotal games away from Manhattan and their hardest games at home. To succeed in the Big 12, Kansas State will have to win at Colorado and Texas A&M. The game that decides fifth and sixth place in the Big 12 North may very well be the final game of the year for KSU, when Iowa State comes into town.
6. Iowa State
Iowa State may be able to pull off one win against Baylor on Oct. 11th, but the Cyclones will have to win clutch games at Oklahoma State and at Kansas State to even contend for respectability in the Big 12. The Cyclones won’t be able to compete with the perennial Big 12 powerhouses of Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. But there is something to look forward to for Iowa State fans: no sign of OU, Texas or Texas Tech on the schedule this year.
Big 12 South
1. Oklahoma
The Sooners are favorites to win the Big 12 again, and with good reason. They do not have to play No. 6 Missouri during the regular season and they play both Kansas and Texas Tech in Norman. Their non-conference schedule is a relative cakewalk, and the offense should be one of the most explosive in the nation.
Barring a breakdown in an environment like Washington or Texas A&M, the Sooners should win the Big 12 South and contend for a national chamionship. The Big 12 Championship should boil down to OU and Missouri, and both teams could easily be undefeated. In such a case, the winner would likely play for a national title.
2. Texas Tech
This is the Big 12’s team to look out for. They have a schedule favorable for a BCS run, much like Kansas last year. With a cupcake non-conference schedule against Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU and Massachusetts, the Red Raiders’ first real test will probably be at Texas A&M, followed by Kansas. Even with a loss against Kansas and Oklahoma, Tech should finish second in the south half of the conference. Quarterback Graham Harrell and wide receiver Michael Crabtree connected for nearly 2,000 yards last year, and they should rip through opposing defenses again this year.
3. Texas
The Longhorns will remain dangerous with talented junior quarterback Colt McCoy. A difficult schedule could make them more of a spoiler than a true contender. Aside from the Red River game in Dallas, they have the same setup the Sooners had last year, facing Colorado in Boulder the week before. Could that be a trap game? Regardless, the Longhorns play on the road against Texas Tech and Kansas, and Missouri at home. They should lose at least two games in the conference, and a loss to Tech would forfeit the tiebreaker should the two teams each have two losses, resulting in a third place finish.
4. Texas A&M
An early October game in Stillwater could decide this position in the conference. Texas A&M returns experienced senior quarterback Stephen McGee, who threw for just over 2,300 yards last season and ran for nearly 900, leading the team. They will also have senior bruiser fullback Jorvorskie Lane. These two should help them win some games in the conference, especially considering the incredible home-field advantage Kyle Field supplies.
5. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a history of jumping up and surprising some teams, but the schedule dictates where they should finish. With wins over Baylor, Iowa State and Colorado, the rest of the conference schedule looks brutal. Games at home against Texas A&M and Oklahoma will be winnable but tough. Their road games come against Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech. It’s hard to see them winning many of these, which leads to a bottom third ranking in the south division.
6. Baylor
The Bears face the toughest season opener in the conference against No. 23 Wake Forest, and things don’t get much better from there. In addition to playing every team in the South, the Bears face Nebraska on the road and Missouri at home. They simply don’t have the talent of the rest of the division, and will be lucky to escape with two in-conference victories.
AP Top 10
1. USC
The Trojans will once again reach the top of the pack, and they will accomplish that feat with some big wins against ranked teams, but their superb defense should lead them past an early-season matchup with Ohio State. They should receive virtually no resistance from any of the other Pac-10 teams.
The Trojans have a tendency to play down to an inferior opponent at least once a year, but if they can avoid an upset to a team like Stanford (which beat them last year), they shouldn’t have any trouble making it to the championship game.
2. Oklahoma
The Sooners will play the Trojans in the BCS title game for the second time in the Stoops era, paving the way for a showdown between OU’s unstoppable offense and USC’s immovable defense..
Once No. 2 Ohio State and No. 1 Georgia pick up losses against USC and Florida, respectively, Oklahoma’s path will be set. The Sooners have the talent to burn through their schedule and beat any team the North has to offer for the conference title.
As long as the Sooners don’t choke against Texas Tech or Oklahoma State in the final two weeks, they should have no problem qualifying for a BCS bowl. The trouble will be winning it.
3. Florida
The Gators, like Georgia, will fall victim to an incredibly deep SEC. With games against the Bulldogs, LSU and pesky Arkansas, one loss is virtually assured.
The end to the Gators’ season is remarkably light on tough teams, which will allow them to climb back into contention late. There will be another controversy over who should be No. 2, spawning more people calling for a playoff system.
4. Ohio State
There will be plenty of trap games for the Buckeyes along the way, including ones on the road against No. 13 Wisconsin and No. 20 Illinois.
OSU shouldn’t have any problems with either of those teams, but there will be one blemish on OSU’s record — the aforementioned loss to USC.
The Buckeyes play a weak schedule in a weak conference, which will keep them from qualifying for their third consecutive BCS title game.
5. Clemson
Recently, it’s been anybody’s guess how the Tigers will play from week to week. They have some of the most talented offensive players in the nation, but never seem to live up to their potential.
This year, the heat will be on coach Tommy Bowden to deliver. He has the most talent and weapons at his disposal since arriving at Clemson, and fans are getting restless.
Like Ohio State, Clemson will be punished because of a weak schedule. The Tigers only play two teams ranked in the preseason top 25 — No. 24 Alabama and No. 23 Wake Forest. They’ll lose one of those games along the way, but will have enough time to climb back into the top five and qualify for a BCS bowl.
6. Georgia
As the preseason No. 1 team in the nation in both the Associated Press and the USA Today/Coaches poll, they are clearly a stacked team in a stacked conference.
But it’s the conference that will ultimately doom them. The No. 1 title will paint a target on the Bulldogs’ back, and if they don’t play their absolute best every week they’ll lose two games. But their schedule is so brutal that they’ll still receive an at-large BCS bid.
7. Missouri
The Tigers are a hot pick to make a run all the way to the title game after they proved their readiness to play on a big stage by thrashing Arkansas in last year’s Cotton Bowl 38-7. But OU has been Missouri’s Achilles heal, and that won’t change this year.
If both teams are undefeated when the Big 12 Championship rolls around, it should be No. 2 against No. 3. A Mizzou loss drops them to No. 7, and the Tigers could be ouside looking in come BCS time again.
8. BYU
Every year, a mid-major teams plows through a terrible schedule and ends the year in the top 10. Following Utah, Boise State (which OU fans remember quite well) and Hawaii, it’s now BYU’s turn to crash the BCS. The Cougars face a slew of no-name schools — Wyoming, UNLV, San Diego State and Utah State to name a few. The only challenge they’ll face all year is Utah on the road.
9. West Virginia
Sooner fans will be glad to see this team in a different game after last year’s embarrassment in the Fiesta Bowl. Although the Mountaineers lost Steve Slayton in the offseason, they still retain Pat White and Noel Devine, who have become a lethal combination.
They’ll play No. 25 Pittsburgh and No. 19 South Florida at the end of the year, but neither of them should be ranked by then. Their Oct. 23 showdown with Auburn will be their only huge test, and they should win the Big East with ease, which will earn them another BCS bowl bid.
10. Auburn
This is the third SEC team in this poll, and all three would be ranked higher if they were in a different conference. The Tigers tend to be overlooked during SEC discussions, but their defense should be one of the best in the nation.
Of all the SEC schedules, the Tigers have the most favorable, as they play LSU, Tennesse and Georgia at home. But the SEC is a cursed conference that dooms almost all the teams to at least two losses. Auburn won’t be able to escape that fate, but the Tigers will look good and will win big in a second-tier bowl game.
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alya6062 3 years, 9 months ago
GO SOONERS