Meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman are planning to expand forecasts for the prediction of critical fire weather areas from a one and two day format to a day three-to-eight day format.

Storm predictors have been testing the new format for about a month, said fire weather forecaster Casey Crosbie. He said he feels confident the new format will be available to the public by the end of the summer.

SPC senior development meteorologist Phillip Bothwell said the format has already moved to a third day forecast for dry thunderstorms.

Crosbie said this is especially important to people who live in western parts of the country where dry thunderstorms can produce hazardous wild fires which can cause tremendous damage.

Dry thunderstorms are a major reason for forest fires, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, and more than 99 percent of the wild fire occurrences in 2000 were caused by lightning.

The new format may help firefighters in critical fire weather areas better mobilize resources at an earlier time, Bothwell said.

Bothwell said the format for predicting dry thunderstorms will not extend past the third day at this time, but the format will predict critical fire weather areas by looking at atmospheric conditions, wind conditions and dry fuels for the fires such as dry trees that make fires more dangerous.

The ability to change to the third-day dry thunderstorm forecast is due to additional tools which better predict cloud-to-ground lightning occurrences. Bothwell said these tools can better predict the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning. The tools are part of a "Perfect Prognosis" that help more accurately predict lightning flashes from dry thunderstorms.

Crosbie said the reason dry thunderstorms that cause wild fires are more prevalent in the western part of the country is because there aren't the warm bodies of water to produce precipitation in that area.

Bothwell said the dry thunderstorms are produced when clouds reach a high elevation in the atmosphere and the atmosphere below is very dry. Bothwell said the dry conditions coupled with heat cause precipitation to evaporate before it hits the ground.

Early July is one of the most critical times of the year for wildfires, Crosbie said.

He said fire weather predictors use the day three-to-eight-format in "trying to delineate an area of the country that has high winds combined with low humidity."

Crosbie said these are the most critical conditions for the violent spread of wildfires.
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