BC-VENEZUELA:MI

CARACAS, Venezuela - Forecasts of an economic crisis later this year are pushing Venezuela's labor unions, private sector and opposition parties to ratchet up their demands that President Hugo Chavez resign.

``His economic policies are driving us into disaster,'' Carlos Ortega, head of the country's largest labor union, said Tuesday. ``If the president ... had any shame he would have left a long time ago.''

Ortega's comments came as his one-million-member Venezuelan Workers' Confederation, or CTV, announced it would begin consultations on a nationwide strike, like the one that eventually led to an April coup against Chavez.

Opposition parties and businessmen's groups have also stepped up calls for legal maneuvers, street protests and civil disobedience campaigns to force the leftist populist Chavez from power.

``We are in a paralysis that could turn into an economic collapse,'' said Carlos Fernandez, president of Fedecamaras, the nation's private enterprise group, where some members have called for a tax boycott.

Waiting impatiently in the wings are groups of military officers who have threatened another coup unless the president stops politicizing the armed forces and finds a constitutional way out of the crisis.

An April 11 march on the Miraflores presidential palace backed by the CTV and Fedecamaras ended in a bloody shootout and led military commanders to topple Chavez, though loyal officers returned him to power April 14.

But signs of impending economic doom have only increased since then, with a drop in oil prices that provide 80 percent of the government's income and both foreign and domestic investors staying on the sidelines.

The economy shrank 4.2 percent in the first quarter of this year and the government debt to Venezuelan banks, which soared 330 percent under Chavez, has raised alarms about a possible collapse of the financial system.

Treasury officials have admitted they diverted $2.3 billion in oil revenues, destined for a rainy-day fund, to cover current expenses, and the government owes employees nearly $3 billion in back salaries and benefits.

Government spending fell 37 percent and income tax collections dropped 55 percent in March compared to the same month last year, the Central Bank reported Sunday. Unemployment officially stands at 15 percent, but economists estimate that half the labor force lacks full-time jobs.

Recent polls show Chavez still has strong popular support, especially among the poor who make up the majority of the 24 million people.

Although 58 percent of Venezuelans favor a referendum on Chavez's government, 53 percent would vote for him again, according to a recent poll by the firm Consultores 21, with a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

Nearly 60 percent approved of his policies, 30 percent said they are members of Chavez's political party and 17 percent said his government should be defended with weapons if necessary, the poll showed.

Yet even though most of Chavez's policies have been only mildly leftist, his incendiary rhetoric and admiration for Cuba have deeply angered virtually every powerful sector in the country, from the church to the media.

``He is the only man who has ever started a counter-revolution without a real revolution,'' said Teodoro Petkoff, a former leftist guerrilla and now editor of the newspaper TalCual.

Chavez's opposition remains as divided as it is angry, however. Hard-line opponents favor civil disobedience to make the nation ungovernable, and the Democratic Action party has called for a July 11 march on Miraflores _ a thinly veiled threat to physically drive out the president.

Moderates favor a recall referendum or a constitutional amendment to shorten Chavez's term, though both options would take months and require the approval of the National Assembly, where his supporters hold a thin majority.

``A constitutional solution might take longer, but the alternative is anarchy,'' warned Francisco Arias Cardenas, a former Chavez ally who ran against him in the last elections.

Chavez himself called on the opposition Sunday to ``stop playing with the ideas'' of a civilian or military coup and wait until Aug. 19, 2003, when the constitution allows a recall referendum halfway through his six-year term.

``I ask the opposition for patience and respect for the established constitutional order,'' he said in his weekly radio program, "Alo Presidente." ``I am not going to be toppled, and I am not going to quit.''

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(c) 2002, The Miami Herald.

Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.
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